{"id":41756,"date":"2023-09-01T05:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-01T03:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mzone.cz\/?p=41756"},"modified":"2023-08-30T12:26:22","modified_gmt":"2023-08-30T10:26:22","slug":"zmena-v-predpovedi-pocasi-muze-ovlivnit-ceny-energii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mzone.cz\/en\/zmena-v-predpovedi-pocasi-muze-ovlivnit-ceny-energii\/","title":{"rendered":"I drobn\u00e1 zm\u011bna v p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit ceny energi\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"

V d\u016fsledku rusk\u00e9 invaze na Ukrajinu se na pozad\u00ed oslabuj\u00edc\u00edch makroekonomick\u00fdch podm\u00ednek a vysok\u00e9 inflace rozv\u00edj\u00ed bezprecedentn\u00ed nejistota ohledn\u011b glob\u00e1ln\u00edch dod\u00e1vek energie. Zat\u00edmco n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed toto vn\u00edmaj\u00ed jako potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed ne\u00fasp\u011bch energetick\u00e9ho p\u0159echodu, jin\u00ed v tom vid\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost k odklonu od fosiln\u00edch paliv a urychlen\u00ed rozvoje \u010dist\u00fdch technologi\u00ed. Po\u010das\u00ed bylo v\u017edy z\u00e1sadn\u00edm faktorem p\u0159i obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s energiemi. Obchodn\u00edci s energi\u00ed vy\u017eaduj\u00ed informace o p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00edch, kter\u00e9 podrobn\u011b popisuj\u00ed, kdy a kde se o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 zm\u011bny po\u010das\u00ed. I drobn\u00e1 zm\u011bna v modelu p\u0159edpov\u011bdi m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit ceny na energetick\u00fdch trz\u00edch. Jak moc v\u0161ak po\u010das\u00ed ovliv\u0148uje, kolik budeme platit za energie? Jak\u00fd vliv m\u00e1 na ceny energi\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed? A jakou roli p\u0159i p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00edch hraje um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence?<\/strong><\/p>
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Jak moc m\u00e1 po\u010das\u00ed vliv na to, kolik budeme platit za energie? <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

V\u011bt\u0161ina lid\u00ed vn\u00edm\u00e1 cenu energi\u00ed p\u0159\u00edmo z\u00e1vislou na cen\u011b uhl\u00ed a plynu. To v\u0161ak nen\u00ed \u00fapln\u00e9 a vzhledem k mno\u017estv\u00ed obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f i vlivu po\u010das\u00ed na popt\u00e1vku po energi\u00edch je vliv po\u010das\u00ed na jejich cenu v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e bychom \u010dekali. A nen\u00ed to zdaleka jen o tom, zda na severu Evropy byl such\u00fd rok a vyrobilo se tak m\u00e9n\u011b elekt\u0159iny z vody, nebo v N\u011bmecku foukalo m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e obvykle. Vliv maj\u00ed t\u0159eba i nezvykl\u00e1 horka ve Francii, kv\u016fli kter\u00fdm se omezuje v\u00fdroba z tamn\u00edch jadern\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren. D\u00edky fixaci cen m\u00e1 v\u0161ak po\u010das\u00ed vliv na cenu energi\u00ed pro koncov\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitele sp\u00ed\u0161e v dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00edm horizontu. Pro predikce cen na kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m trhu s elekt\u0159inou hraje po\u010das\u00ed \u010dasto dominantn\u00ed roli a vliv m\u00e1 na dvou \u00farovn\u00edch. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b popt\u00e1vky ovliv\u0148uje nap\u0159\u00edklad jak moc budou dom\u00e1cnosti i podniky topit. A v letn\u00edm obdob\u00ed zda pob\u011b\u017e\u00ed ve velk\u00e9m klimatizace. Na stran\u011b v\u00fdroby pak m\u00e1me ceny plynu i uhl\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b volatiln\u00ed v kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu a v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vliv tedy m\u00e1 kolik se vyrob\u00ed energie z obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f.<\/p>
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\"Topen\u00ed\"<\/figure>
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Nen\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed jako p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f po\u010das\u00ed <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

V\u011bt\u0161ina meteorologick\u00fdch slu\u017eeb p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 po\u010das\u00ed na z\u00e1klad\u011b jednoho z v\u00edce meteorologick\u00fdch model\u016f. To m\u00e1 v\u0161ak v\u017edy omezen\u00ed \u2013 ned\u00e1 se \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee by n\u011bkter\u00fd model byl lep\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e jin\u00fd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Ka\u017ed\u00fd je definovan\u00fd trochu jinak a plat\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159i r\u016fzn\u00fdch meteorologick\u00fdch situac\u00edch a pro r\u016fzn\u00e9 lokality je lep\u0161\u00ed jin\u00fd model. N\u011bkter\u00fd pro danou oblast um\u00ed l\u00e9pe p\u0159edpov\u00eddat bou\u0159ky, jin\u00fd zvl\u00e1d\u00e1 l\u00e9pe zimn\u00ed inverze, dal\u0161\u00ed zase dob\u0159e trefuje t\u0159eba no\u010dn\u00ed teploty. V m\u00e9di\u00edch se n\u00e1sledn\u011b setk\u00e1v\u00e1me s r\u016fzn\u011b kvalitn\u00edmi v\u00fdstupy.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u201eMeteocentrum se odli\u0161uje zejm\u00e9na vysp\u011blou technologi\u00ed a um\u011blou inteligenc\u00ed, kterou vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me k vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed spolehliv\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed a tak\u00e9 meteorologick\u00fdm z\u00e1zem\u00edm s vlastn\u00edmi odborn\u00edky. Na\u0161e v\u00fdstupy m\u016f\u017ee sledovat \u0161irok\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnost na na\u0161em webu nebo nap\u0159\u00edklad v aplikaci Po\u010das\u00ed Meteocentrum, kter\u00e1 je dostupn\u00e1 na Google Play,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Bohuslav Zeman, projektov\u00fd mana\u017eer z meteorologicko-technologick\u00e9 firmy Meteocentrum se slu\u017ebou forecasts.cloud<\/a>.<\/p>
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\"Bou\u0159ka\"<\/figure>
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AI a data v hlavn\u00ed roli <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Um\u011bl\u00e1 inteligence (AI) a strojov\u00e9 u\u010den\u00ed se v meteorologii st\u00e1v\u00e1 \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. V z\u00e1sad\u011b se vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 na dvou \u00farovn\u00edch. V prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b se vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 strojov\u00e9 u\u010den\u00ed k vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed samotn\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Modely se u\u010d\u00ed na historick\u00fdch datech a minul\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00edch r\u016fzn\u00fdch model\u016f. Ty se porovn\u00e1vaj\u00ed se skute\u010dnost\u00ed a na z\u00e1klad\u011b toho se n\u00e1sledn\u011b vhodn\u011b kombinuj\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e9 modely s c\u00edlem minimalizovat budouc\u00ed odchylky a dos\u00e1hnout co nejp\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

V druh\u00e9 \u0159ad\u011b se pak na t\u011bchto p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00edch a datech z\u00e1kazn\u00edka u\u010d\u00ed aplikovan\u00e9 modely \u2013 a\u0165 u\u017e se jedn\u00e1 o v\u00fdrobu\/popt\u00e1vku v energetice, prodejnost vybran\u00fdch produkt\u016f \u010di popt\u00e1vku ve slu\u017eb\u00e1ch. Tyto data se pak kombinuj\u00ed s dal\u0161\u00ed spoustou dat \u2013 nejen meteorologick\u00fdch, ale i ekonomick\u00fdch a z oblasti psychologie spot\u0159ebitel\u016f a na tomto v\u0161em se model u\u010d\u00ed predikovat po\u017eadovan\u00fd v\u00fdstup.<\/p>
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Jak p\u0159esn\u00e9 jsou modelov\u00e9 predikce? <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

U po\u010das\u00ed je procentu\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159esnost predikc\u00ed dosti zr\u00e1dn\u00e1, p\u0159esto\u017ee se s n\u00ed v m\u00e9di\u00edch setk\u00e1v\u00e1me. V tomto sm\u011bru toti\u017e nen\u00ed obecn\u011b akceptovan\u00e1 metrika a z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed tedy, jak si kdo definuje \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost p\u0159edpov\u011bdi. Pokud p\u0159edpov\u00edme obla\u010dno a 8\u00b0C a ve skute\u010dnosti bude zata\u017eeno a 7\u00b0C \u2013 je p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1 na 80%? Nebo 95%? \u201eU n\u00e1s porovn\u00e1v\u00e1me pr\u016fm\u011brnou chybu na\u0161ich model\u016f s ostatn\u00edmi a v tomto sm\u011bru pat\u0159\u00edme ke \u0161pi\u010dce co se t\u00fdk\u00e1 p\u0159esnosti p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed po\u010das\u00ed. Pokud jde o aplikovan\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi, tak se \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost velmi li\u0161\u00ed podle toho, co p\u0159esn\u011b p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1me. Op\u011bt ale dosahujeme solidn\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nosti a klient\u016fm to p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 \u00faspory. To je vid\u011bt i na tom, \u017ee s naprostou v\u011bt\u0161inou na\u0161ich klient\u016f spolupracujeme dlouhodob\u011b,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Bohuslav Zeman.<\/p>
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Tepl\u00e1rny a elektr\u00e1rny maj\u00ed o slu\u017eby meteorolog\u016f velk\u00fd z\u00e1jem <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Posledn\u00ed roky p\u0159inesly do energetiky cenovou volatilitu, kterou si do t\u00e9 doby um\u011bl m\u00e1lokdo p\u0159edstavit. To s sebou p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed nov\u00e9 v\u00fdzvy na efektivitu a po\u017eadavky na optim\u00e1ln\u00ed pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed. Energetika je z velk\u00e9 m\u00edry ovliv\u0148ovan\u00e1 po\u010das\u00edm \u2013 jak na stran\u011b spot\u0159eby (jak moc sv\u00edt\u00edme nebo top\u00edme), tak na stran\u011b v\u00fdroby (v\u00fdroba obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f, efektivita turb\u00edn, atd.). V r\u00e1mci energetiky je lad\u011bn\u00ed model\u016f na m\u00edru \u010dasto n\u011bkolikam\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed proces a spolupr\u00e1ce se tak rozb\u00edh\u00e1 del\u0161\u00ed dobu, ale elektr\u00e1rn\u00e1m i tepl\u00e1rn\u00e1m se to skute\u010dn\u011b vyplat\u00ed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Aplikovan\u00e9 modely i pro dal\u0161\u00ed obory Meteorologicko-technologick\u00e1 firma Meteocentrum od po\u010d\u00e1tku pom\u00e1hala spole\u010dnostem zejm\u00e9na v oblasti energetiky, nap\u0159\u00edklad s p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed sol\u00e1rn\u00ed v\u00fdroby, v\u011btrn\u00e9 energie nebo popt\u00e1vky po teple. Postupn\u011b se v\u0161ak setk\u00e1vala s po\u017eadavky na dal\u0161\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00ed aplikovan\u00e9 modely \u2013 a\u0165 u\u017e to byla p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f speci\u00e1ln\u00edch parametr\u016f pro zem\u011bd\u011blstv\u00ed a dopravu, nebo t\u0159eba vliv po\u010das\u00ed na slu\u017eby a prodej.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\"V\u011btrn\u00e9<\/figure>
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Firm\u00e1m dnes pod hlavi\u010dkou forecasts.cloud nap\u0159\u00edklad predikuje popt\u00e1vku po produktech spole\u010dnosti, proto\u017ee zjistili, \u017ee dok\u00e1\u017ee dodat velmi zaj\u00edmav\u00e1 data a slu\u017eby a t\u0159eba i optimalizovat marketingov\u00e9 sd\u011blen\u00ed. \u201eZkr\u00e1tka v\u00edme co, kdy, kde a jak z\u00e1kazn\u00edk\u016fm uk\u00e1zat, abychom maximalizovali \u00fa\u010dinek sd\u011blen\u00ed, jeliko\u017e po\u010das\u00ed ovliv\u0148uje ka\u017ed\u00e9ho, ani\u017e si to \u010dasto uv\u011bdomujeme,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Zeman.<\/p>
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Zelen\u00e9 energie<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Dnes ji\u017e m\u00e1me o klimatu k dispozici velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed dat a v\u00fdzkum\u016f, jejich\u017e v\u00fdsledky nelze ignorovat. V kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee v\u00edce energie z obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f povede k v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed volatilit\u011b cen energi\u00ed, proto\u017ee po\u010das\u00ed je zkr\u00e1tka prom\u011bnliv\u00e9. V dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdhledu to v\u0161ak z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed prim\u00e1rn\u011b na nov\u00fdch technologi\u00edch a lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee ceny energi\u00ed do budoucna budou klesat. Vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed fosiln\u00edch paliv pro v\u00fdrobu energi\u00ed je toti\u017e drah\u00e9 ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s provozem slune\u010dn\u00edch \u010di v\u011btrn\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren. Jakmile tedy budeme schopni l\u00e9pe p\u0159en\u00e1\u0161et energii na r\u016fzn\u00e1 m\u00edsta, efektivn\u011b ji vyu\u017e\u00edvat i skladovat, tak nen\u00ed d\u016fvod, aby ceny ne\u0161ly v\u00fdrazn\u011b dol\u016f.<\/p>
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\"\"<\/a><\/figure>
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P\u0159elomov\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed? Akumul\u00e1tory skladuj\u00ed energii ze slunce i v\u011btru<\/a><\/h4>
\n<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V d\u016fsledku rusk\u00e9 invaze na Ukrajinu se na pozad\u00ed oslabuj\u00edc\u00edch makroekonomick\u00fdch podm\u00ednek a vysok\u00e9 inflace rozv\u00edj\u00ed bezprecedentn\u00ed nejistota ohledn\u011b glob\u00e1ln\u00edch dod\u00e1vek energie. Zat\u00edmco n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed toto vn\u00edmaj\u00ed jako potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed ne\u00fasp\u011bch energetick\u00e9ho p\u0159echodu, jin\u00ed v tom vid\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost k odklonu od fosiln\u00edch paliv a urychlen\u00ed rozvoje \u010dist\u00fdch technologi\u00ed. Po\u010das\u00ed bylo v\u017edy z\u00e1sadn\u00edm faktorem p\u0159i obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s energiemi. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":41760,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"kk_blocks_editor_width":"","_kiokenblocks_attr":"","_kiokenblocks_dimensions":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[296,25,65,67],"tags":[2379,2256,1089,1047,3634,1823,611,5975,1292,5497,298,5725,490,434,767,35,1431,1103],"class_list":["post-41756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-priroda","category-style","category-technika","category-veda","tag-bydleni","tag-ceny","tag-domacnost","tag-ekonomika","tag-energetika","tag-energie","tag-finance","tag-platby","tag-pocasi","tag-predpoved","tag-priroda","tag-spojitost","tag-style","tag-technika","tag-trhy","tag-veda","tag-vliv","tag-vyvoj"],"yoast_head":"\nI drobn\u00e1 zm\u011bna v p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit ceny energi\u00ed - Mzone<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"V d\u016fsledku rusk\u00e9 invaze na Ukrajinu se na pozad\u00ed oslabuj\u00edc\u00edch makroekonomick\u00fdch podm\u00ednek a vysok\u00e9 inflace rozv\u00edj\u00ed bezprecedentn\u00ed nejistota ohledn\u011b glob\u00e1ln\u00edch dod\u00e1vek energie. Zat\u00edmco n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed toto vn\u00edmaj\u00ed jako potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed ne\u00fasp\u011bch energetick\u00e9ho p\u0159echodu, jin\u00ed v tom vid\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost k odklonu od fosiln\u00edch paliv a urychlen\u00ed rozvoje \u010dist\u00fdch technologi\u00ed. Po\u010das\u00ed bylo v\u017edy z\u00e1sadn\u00edm faktorem p\u0159i obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s energiemi. Obchodn\u00edci s energi\u00ed vy\u017eaduj\u00ed informace o p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00edch, kter\u00e9 podrobn\u011b popisuj\u00ed, kdy a kde se o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 zm\u011bny po\u010das\u00ed. I drobn\u00e1 zm\u011bna v modelu p\u0159edpov\u011bdi m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit ceny na energetick\u00fdch trz\u00edch. Jak moc v\u0161ak po\u010das\u00ed ovliv\u0148uje, kolik budeme platit za energie?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mzone.cz\/en\/zmena-v-predpovedi-pocasi-muze-ovlivnit-ceny-energii\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"I drobn\u00e1 zm\u011bna v p\u0159edpov\u011bdi po\u010das\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit ceny energi\u00ed - Mzone\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"V d\u016fsledku rusk\u00e9 invaze na Ukrajinu se na pozad\u00ed oslabuj\u00edc\u00edch makroekonomick\u00fdch podm\u00ednek a vysok\u00e9 inflace rozv\u00edj\u00ed bezprecedentn\u00ed nejistota ohledn\u011b glob\u00e1ln\u00edch dod\u00e1vek energie. 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Zat\u00edmco n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed toto vn\u00edmaj\u00ed jako potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed ne\u00fasp\u011bch energetick\u00e9ho p\u0159echodu, jin\u00ed v tom vid\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost k odklonu od fosiln\u00edch paliv a urychlen\u00ed rozvoje \u010dist\u00fdch technologi\u00ed. Po\u010das\u00ed bylo v\u017edy z\u00e1sadn\u00edm faktorem p\u0159i obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s energiemi. Obchodn\u00edci s energi\u00ed vy\u017eaduj\u00ed informace o p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00edch, kter\u00e9 podrobn\u011b popisuj\u00ed, kdy a kde se o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 zm\u011bny po\u010das\u00ed. I drobn\u00e1 zm\u011bna v modelu p\u0159edpov\u011bdi m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit ceny na energetick\u00fdch trz\u00edch. 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